人民币兑美元中间价报7.0471，上调52点 升值至2024年9月30日以来最高！人民币汇率升值势头望延续

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan is experiencing a strengthening trend against the US dollar, with expectations for continued appreciation due to seasonal factors and a weakening US dollar index [4][5][12]. Group 1: Yuan Exchange Rate Trends - On December 24, the yuan's central parity against the US dollar was reported at 7.0471, an increase of 52 points, marking the highest level since September 30, 2024 [8]. - Analysts predict that the yuan may continue to run strong within the year, although the exchange rate may struggle to break the 7.0 mark [4][11]. - The seasonal demand for currency settlement at year-end is expected to support the yuan's strength, with a possibility of a temporary breakthrough above 7.0 [4][11]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have been largely priced in, and the actual performance of US economic data will be crucial in determining the dollar index's trajectory [4][11]. - The current low level of the yuan's effective exchange rate and the strength of China's manufacturing sector are seen as supportive factors for a moderate appreciation of the yuan [4][11]. - The release of accumulated settlement demand is likely to accelerate the yuan's appreciation in the near term [5][12]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Outlook - According to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in January is 86.7%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 13.3% [6][13]. - By March, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 40.7%, with a 54.4% chance of maintaining rates [6][13].