华泰期货：哈塞特再次放鸽 贵金属价格延续强势

Economic Data - The initial estimate of the US GDP for Q3 shows a significant annualized quarter-on-quarter growth of 4.3%, surpassing the market expectation of 3.3%, marking the fastest growth in two years [2] - Strong consumer spending was the primary driver of this growth, with a notable acceleration to 3.5% for the quarter [2] - The core PCE price index increased by 2.9% in Q3 [2] - In October, both core capital goods orders and shipments in the US showed a rebound [2] - Hassett, a potential candidate for the Federal Reserve chair, noted that the AI boom is contributing to economic growth while simultaneously lowering inflation, indicating that the US is lagging behind other central banks in terms of interest rate cuts [2] Futures Market - On December 23, 2025, the main gold futures contract opened at 999.36 CNY/gram and closed at 1014.24 CNY/gram, reflecting a change of 1.34% from the previous trading day [15] - The trading volume for gold on that day was 41,087 contracts, with an open interest of 129,725 contracts [15] - The main silver futures contract opened at 16,200 CNY/kilogram and closed at 16,441 CNY/kilogram, showing a change of 1.43% [15] - The trading volume for silver was 1,230,157 contracts, with an open interest of 340,510 contracts [15] Bond Market - The yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond was recorded at 4.163%, with a change of +0.2 basis points from the previous trading day [16] - The yield spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury bonds was 0.633%, increasing by 2.77 basis points [16] Precious Metals Holdings - As of December 22, 2025, the gold ETF holdings remained stable at 1,064.56 tons, while silver ETF holdings increased by 533 tons to 16,599 tons [18] Trading Strategies - For gold, a cautiously bullish stance is recommended, with expectations of a fluctuating price range between 990 CNY/gram and 1,050 CNY/gram [21] - For silver, a neutral position is suggested, with a price range forecasted between 16,600 CNY/kilogram and 17,600 CNY/kilogram, while cautioning against potential profit-taking risks at high levels [22]