华泰期货：工业硅触底反弹，多晶硅情绪消退

Core Viewpoint - Industrial silicon futures prices showed a slight upward trend, with the main contract closing at 8780 yuan/ton, a change of 1.68% from the previous day [2][13] Supply Side - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable, with prices for various grades reported as follows: 553 silicon at 9200-9300 yuan/ton, 421 silicon at 9500-9800 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon at 8600-8900 yuan/ton [2][13] - As of December 18, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 553,000 tons, a decrease of 1.43% from the previous week [2][13] Demand Side - The price of organic silicon DMC was reported at 13,500-13,700 yuan/ton, with a slight decrease in production expected for December [3][14] - The export volume of primary forms of polysiloxane from China in November 2025 was 47,000 tons, an increase of 15.82% month-on-month and 10.39% year-on-year [4][14] Strategy - The current market is characterized by stable spot prices, with potential improvements in supply-demand dynamics following production cuts in the southwest, although an accumulation of inventory persists [5][15] - Industrial silicon is currently undervalued, and any policy-driven changes could lead to upward price movements [5][15] Market Analysis for Polysilicon - On December 23, polysilicon futures prices experienced a slight decline, closing at 59,225 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.91% from the previous trading day [6][16] - The inventory of polysilicon increased, with the latest statistics showing a total of 29,300 tons, unchanged from the previous week [6][16] Price Information - The prices for various types of silicon wafers and battery cells were reported, with N-type 210mm silicon wafers priced at 1.53 yuan/piece and high-efficiency PERC182 battery cells at 0.27 yuan/W [6][17] Market Conditions - The polysilicon market is under pressure from increasing inventory and weak demand, with expectations of continued price fluctuations [8][18] - The main contract for polysilicon is anticipated to fluctuate within the range of 54,000 to 60,000 yuan/ton [8][19]