华泰期货：看涨热情不减，碳酸锂突破12万大关

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing significant price fluctuations driven by supply-side disturbances and inventory dynamics, with a notable increase in prices and a need to monitor potential corrections in the near term [4][10]. Price and Trading Data - On December 23, 2025, the main lithium carbonate contract opened at 113,900 CNY/ton and closed at 120,360 CNY/ton, marking a 5.67% increase from the previous settlement price [2][8]. - The trading volume for the day was 731,003 contracts, with an open interest of 671,573 contracts, up from 668,829 contracts the previous day [2][8]. - The current basis is reported at -18,060 CNY/ton, indicating a difference between the average price of electric carbon and futures [2][8]. Inventory and Supply Dynamics - According to SMM data, the current spot inventory stands at 110,425 tons, reflecting a decrease of 1,044 tons month-over-month [3][9]. - The inventory breakdown includes 18,090 tons at smelting plants (down 1,071 tons), 41,485 tons in downstream sectors (down 1,253 tons), and 50,850 tons in other categories (up 1,280 tons) [3][9]. - Despite a slowdown in inventory depletion, the overall trend remains towards inventory reduction, with attention needed on potential turning points by the end of December [3][9]. Market Sentiment and Strategy - Current prices are influenced by excessive speculation and supply-side disturbances, with a warning about the potential for price corrections due to recent rapid increases [4][10]. - The strategy suggests short-term range trading, focusing on consumption and inventory turning points, with recommendations to sell high for hedging purposes [11]. Influencing Factors - The consumption side continues to exceed expectations, while disturbances from the mining sector are also greater than anticipated [6][13]. - Macro sentiment and changes in positions are impacting market dynamics [6][13].