光大期货：12月24日有色金属日报

Copper - Copper prices have shown a volatile upward trend, with domestic refined copper imports maintaining losses [3][12] - The US GDP grew by 4.3% in Q3, the fastest rate in two years, driven by strong consumer spending, while the PCE price index rose to 2.9%, affecting future Fed rate cut expectations [3][12] - Domestic efforts are focused on stabilizing the real estate market, as indicated by a national construction meeting [3][12] - LME copper inventory increased by 825 tons to 158,575 tons, while Comex inventory rose by 3,879 tons to 427,435 tons [3][12] - Demand remains cautious, with downstream enterprises primarily purchasing based on immediate needs, despite a generally warm macroeconomic environment [3][12] - A strategy of buying on dips is recommended, but excessive chasing of high prices is discouraged [3][12] Nickel & Stainless Steel - LME nickel prices fell by 0.1% to $15,115 per ton, while SHFE nickel dropped by 0.14% to 121,180 yuan per ton [4][13] - LME nickel inventory increased by 216 tons to 254,604 tons, while SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 301 tons to 38,621 tons [4][13] - The Indonesian Nickel Mining Association reported a significant decrease in nickel ore production targets for 2026 [4][13] - Domestic social inventory of primary nickel has slightly increased, while LME inventory has decreased [4][14] - Caution is advised regarding price movements, as current prices have returned to previous levels [4][14] Aluminum & Aluminum Alloys - Alumina prices showed a slight increase, with AO2601 closing at 2,541 yuan per ton, up 0.83% [6][15] - SHFE aluminum prices also increased slightly, with AL2602 closing at 22,160 yuan per ton, up 0.16% [6][15] - Aluminum ingot prices are under pressure due to increased shipments and a return to production by major mining companies [6][15] - The market is facing potential inventory accumulation pressures as macroeconomic sentiment stabilizes [6][15] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon prices increased, with the main contract closing at 8,780 yuan per ton, up 1.68% [7][16] - Polysilicon prices showed a slight decline, with the main contract closing at 59,225 yuan per ton, down 0.91% [7][16] - Expectations of further environmental production cuts in the northwest may support industrial silicon prices in the short term [7][16] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures rose by 5.31% to 120,160 yuan per ton, with significant increases in both battery-grade and industrial-grade lithium carbonate prices [8][17] - Weekly production of lithium increased, while demand for ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate saw a decrease [8][17] - Market sentiment is influenced by expectations of weaker short-term mining operations, leading to rapid price increases in futures [8][17]