华泰期货：PVC昨日上涨3.02%，原因找到了...

Core Viewpoint - PVC futures prices experienced a significant increase, with the main contract V2605 closing up by 3.02%, primarily driven by macroeconomic expectations [2][8]. Macroeconomic Factors - The State Council, led by Li Qiang, emphasized the planning of major projects to stimulate the economy, interpreted by the market as positive for infrastructure and boosting PVC demand expectations [2][8]. - The National Housing and Urban-Rural Construction Work Conference highlighted the need to stabilize the real estate market, further enhancing market sentiment [2][8]. - Recent statements from the Financial Regulatory Bureau and the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission regarding debt risk management and competition have contributed to a stronger macroeconomic atmosphere [2][8]. Fundamental Factors - The PVC market has shown slight improvement, characterized by low valuations and sensitivity to macroeconomic sentiment [3][9]. - The supply side is experiencing a marginal decrease as some calcium carbide method enterprises reduce output, although a surplus is expected by 2025 due to new production [3][9]. - Seasonal impacts have led to a slight decline in downstream operating rates, but low-price procurement is occurring, resulting in a rebound in trading volume [3][9]. - Export orders remain resilient ahead of the upcoming holidays, and the PVC caustic soda comprehensive profit has seen a minor recovery, although it remains low year-on-year [3][9]. - There are indications of reduced overseas supply, with Westlake Chemical approving the closure of a 450,000-ton PVC plant by December 2025, and Vynova filing for bankruptcy for its 320,000-ton PVC plant, providing slight support to market sentiment [3][9]. Overall Market Outlook - While the PVC supply-demand improvement potential is limited, the recent strong macroeconomic expectations and overseas supply disruptions have jointly driven the price rebound [3][9]. - The market is expected to continue fluctuating in line with macroeconomic sentiment in the future [3][9].