铁矿：铁水降幅或有限 钢厂补库预期支撑价格

Group 1: Market Overview - The main spot prices for iron ore at Rizhao Port are PB powder at 790 RMB/wet ton, mixed powder at 819 RMB/wet ton, and lump ore at 870 RMB/wet ton [1] - As of December 23, the main iron ore futures contract closed at 778.5 RMB/ton, down 0.38% from the previous day [1] - The optimal delivery product is lump ore, with PB powder and lump ore warehouse costs at 845.7 RMB and 836.9 RMB respectively, resulting in a PB powder basis of 67.2 RMB/ton [1] Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - Daily iron water production is 2.2655 million tons, down 26,500 tons month-on-month; the blast furnace operating rate is 78.47%, down 0.16%; and the capacity utilization rate is 84.93%, down 1 percentage point [1] - Global iron ore shipments decreased by 1.28 million tons to 34.645 million tons, with Australia and Brazil's total shipments at 28.147 million tons, down 1.508 million tons [1] - The inventory at 45 ports is 155.1263 million tons, up 812,100 tons month-on-month, indicating a slight accumulation trend [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The iron ore market is expected to maintain a pattern of accumulation due to high inventory levels, but the marginal accumulation space is expected to decrease [2] - The future price trend will depend on BHP negotiations, iron water trends, and steel mill restocking expectations [2] - Short-term strategies suggest a range trading approach for the May contract, with a reference range of 760-810 RMB [2]