政策托底+需求旺季支撑，煤价回调后具备修复空间

Core Viewpoints - The supply and demand for coking coal are in a weak balance, with prices showing support amidst stability. Coking coal prices have risen slightly this week, with the main coking coal stock at Jingtang Port increasing by a month-on-month rate, while production prices remain stable. Despite being in a low-demand season, low inventory levels and limited supply increases at year-end, combined with downstream winter storage replenishment needs, are expected to lead to a narrow range of price fluctuations and stabilization [1][2]. Group 1 - The supply of thermal coal is constrained with differentiated demand, leading to a broader price correction. Thermal coal prices have seen an expanded decline this week, with both port and production prices falling. Previous pessimistic sentiments have somewhat eased, and the expected increase in daily consumption during winter, along with reduced year-end supply and declining inventory levels, will support a stabilization in prices [1][2]. - The secondary market shows mixed performance, with the coal sector outperforming indices. The market is experiencing structural differentiation, with funds concentrating on low-volatility and high-dividend sectors, such as retail and non-bank financials leading the gains, while growth sectors are under pressure. The average daily transaction volume has decreased to 17.6 trillion yuan, indicating a cautious sentiment [1][2]. Group 2 - The financial regulatory authority is seeking opinions on the liability management measures for insurance funds, reinforcing a long-term allocation orientation. The market anticipates that insurance funds may bring an incremental capital of 550 to 600 billion yuan to the equity market [2]. - On a global scale, the Federal Reserve's policy interest rate expectations remain stable, with a reduced probability of interest rate cuts anticipated in January 2026. The dollar liquidity environment is temporarily stable, which has not significantly disturbed the A-share market [2].