长江有色: 库存低位及需求韧性支撑 24日铝价或上涨

Group 1: Market Overview - The aluminum market is experiencing fluctuations, with LME aluminum closing at $2941 per ton, unchanged from the previous day, while the Shanghai aluminum price increased slightly to ¥22160 per ton, up ¥35, reflecting a 0.16% rise [1] - The geopolitical tensions are heightening market risk aversion, with the U.S. imposing strict sanctions on Venezuela, which may impact global metal prices [2] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.36%, reaching a new low since October 3, making metals priced in dollars more attractive to overseas buyers [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity remains stable, with manageable supply pressures, while demand shows resilience despite entering a seasonal slowdown [3] - Aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 27,000 tons to 588,000 tons, which may limit the upward potential for aluminum prices [3] - Emerging sectors such as artificial intelligence, photovoltaic installations, and new energy vehicles are expected to drive new growth opportunities for aluminum consumption [3] Group 3: Price Trends and Expectations - The recent rise in aluminum prices has somewhat suppressed downstream consumption, leading to a "fear of heights" sentiment in the market [3] - Despite the accumulation of visible inventory, it remains at a low level, and the overall supply-demand balance is not significantly strained, suggesting a potential increase in spot aluminum prices [3]