Core Viewpoint - The global nickel market is experiencing a significant tension between supply expectations and current realities, driven by Indonesia's planned production cuts and high global inventories [1][2]. Group 1: Supply Dynamics - Indonesia plans to reduce nickel production by 34% to 250 million tons by 2026, aiming to shift its role from a primary resource exporter to a dominant player in the industry [1]. - Despite the ambitious reduction targets, existing smelting capacities in Indonesia continue to release nickel, leading to a year-on-year increase in intermediate nickel product output [2]. - LME nickel inventories remain at historically high levels, indicating that current price increases are driven more by speculative trading rather than genuine supply-demand tightness [1][2]. Group 2: Demand Challenges - The stainless steel sector, which accounts for a significant portion of nickel consumption, is facing reduced demand due to a downturn in the real estate and manufacturing sectors, leading to lower operating rates among downstream processing enterprises [2]. - The anticipated growth in high-nickel batteries is not materializing as expected, with lithium iron phosphate batteries maintaining over 80% market share, resulting in a slowdown in demand for high-nickel ternary batteries [2]. Group 3: Industry Dynamics and Profit Redistribution - Policy pressures are causing a significant reshaping of profits across the nickel supply chain, with upstream mining facing rising resource costs and midstream smelting caught in a squeeze due to high raw material prices and declining nickel ore grades [2]. - Downstream purchasers, such as stainless steel manufacturers, are cautious in the face of rising prices, leading to limited market transactions and reflecting a lack of solid support for price increases [2]. Group 4: Short-term Outlook - Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range constrained by high inventories and weak demand, with potential upward support from Indonesia's production cuts and cost pressures [3]. - The anticipated price range is projected to be between 120,000-135,000 CNY/ton for Shanghai nickel and 15,500-16,500 USD/ton for London nickel [3]. Group 5: Future Considerations - The current market dynamics highlight the determination of resource-rich countries to strengthen their control over the industry, while also revealing the challenges of transitioning to greener technologies [4]. - Key factors to monitor include the effectiveness and timing of Indonesia's capacity control and cost policies, as well as advancements in high-nickel battery technologies that could open up long-term demand [4].
镍：印尼减产牌搅动全局 过剩及高库存下产业链如何？
Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-12-24 02:23