Seeking Alpha·2025-12-24 02:27Core Insights - The article provides a detailed analysis comparing Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM) to 17 other mortgage real estate investment trusts (mREITs) to address ongoing requests for such comparisons [1][2] - The analysis is divided into two parts, with Part 1 focusing on RITM's recent results and metrics, while Part 2 emphasizes dividend rates, yield percentages, and sustainability metrics [2][3] Group 1: RITM's Financial Metrics - RITM's book value as of September 30, 2025, is compared to its 17 mREIT peers, providing insights into its financial standing [2] - RITM declared a dividend of $0.25 per common share for Q3 2025, maintaining the same rate as the previous quarter, resulting in a trailing twelve-month (TTM) dividend yield of 8.26% [16][27] - The annual forward yield based on RITM's stock price as of September 19, 2025, is also 8.26%, while the yield based on the company's book value is 7.79% [16] Group 2: Dividend Sustainability Analysis - The article discusses RITM's dividend sustainability, indicating a very high probability (90%) of maintaining a dividend between $0.25 and $0.30 per share for Q1 and Q2 2026 [29] - RITM's quarterly core earnings available to common shareholders for Q3 2025 were reported at $296.9 million, translating to a core earnings per share of $0.54, which is above the dividend rate [23][21] - The dividend distribution payout ratios for RITM have been attractive, with ratios of 48%, 46%, and 47% for Q1, Q2, and Q3 2025, respectively [23] Group 3: Comparative Analysis with Peers - RITM's TTM dividend yield and annual forward yield percentages are notably below average when compared to its peer PMT, indicating a lower risk profile [16][27] - The article emphasizes that RITM has maintained a consistent dividend history, increasing its dividend from $0.35 in Q3 2014 to $0.25 since Q3 2021, contrasting with many peers that have reduced dividends [15][13] - The analysis includes a comparison of RITM's leverage ratio, which is lower than that of PMT, suggesting a more conservative approach to risk management [17] Group 4: Future Projections and Recommendations - The projected adjusted core earnings for Q4 2025 are expected to improve compared to Q3 2025, indicating a positive outlook for RITM's financial performance [30] - The current price target for RITM is approximately $14.60 per share, with recommendations varying from SELL at a premium to BUY at a discount to the projected book value [34][32] - The article concludes that RITM is currently undervalued, with a strong buy recommendation based on its financial metrics and market conditions [33]