智通财经网·2025-12-24 02:33Group 1 - Goldman Sachs and Citigroup have contrasting views on the U.S. economic outlook for 2026, with Goldman being more optimistic, predicting a growth rate of 2.6%, while Citigroup forecasts a lower rate of 2.1% [1][2] - Goldman Sachs expects strong GDP growth in the first half of next year, attributing this to the diminishing effects of tariffs and an additional $100 billion in tax refunds from fiscal plans, alongside a loose monetary environment from the Federal Reserve [1] - Citigroup is skeptical about the scale of additional tax refunds, estimating it to be between $30 billion and $50 billion, and believes that the supportive effects of a loose monetary environment are limited [2] Group 2 - Both banks anticipate further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, with Goldman predicting a 50 basis point cut and Citigroup expecting a 75 basis point cut, highlighting a general dovish outlook [3] - Citigroup emphasizes that the biggest risk to their economic outlook is a rise in unemployment rates, noting that historically, prolonged increases in unemployment have led to significant economic downturns [3] - Goldman Sachs identifies the labor market's weaknesses as a major vulnerability, warning that persistent job market issues could trigger serious recession concerns [3]