加元持续拉锯震荡政策分化油价成核心博弈点

Core Viewpoint - The USD/CAD exchange rate is currently at 1.3676, reflecting a narrow fluctuation pattern driven by the divergence in monetary policies between the US and Canada, alongside factors such as international oil price volatility, economic fundamentals, and geopolitical risks [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Divergence - The Bank of Canada has completed four rate cuts totaling 100 basis points this year and maintained the overnight rate at 2.25% on December 10, indicating a neutral to hawkish stance that has led to market expectations of a rate hike in 2026 [1]. - In contrast, the Federal Reserve has implemented its third rate cut of the year in December, lowering the key interest rate to a range of 3.5%-3.75%, with internal dissent highlighting significant policy divergence within the Fed [2]. - The contrasting monetary policies of the two central banks are a primary driver of the ongoing pressure on the USD/CAD exchange rate [2]. Group 2: Economic Fundamentals - Canada's economy showed resilience with a 2.6% annualized GDP growth in Q3, reversing previous contractions, and a drop in the unemployment rate to 6.5%, the lowest in nearly 16 months [1]. - The Canadian dollar, as a commodity currency, is influenced by oil prices, which have declined by 15.2% since 2025, impacting Canada's oil export revenues and providing some support for the USD/CAD exchange rate [2]. Group 3: Technical Analysis and Market Sentiment - The USD/CAD exchange rate is currently characterized by bearish dominance but with slowing momentum, as indicated by technical indicators [3]. - Short-term price fluctuations are expected to remain within the range of 1.3740-1.3830, with key support at 1.3720-1.3680 and resistance at 1.3830 and 1.3890 [3]. - Some institutions are beginning to adopt a bullish outlook on the Canadian dollar, anticipating it could rise to 77 cents against the USD by 2026 due to factors such as narrowing interest rate differentials and enhanced economic resilience [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The future trajectory of the USD/CAD exchange rate will depend on multiple factors, including guidance from the Bank of Canada on interest rate hikes, core inflation data, and statements from Federal Reserve officials [3]. - Additionally, OPEC+ production policies, international oil price trends, and developments in US-Canada trade negotiations will be critical variables influencing the exchange rate [3]. - The ongoing divergence in monetary policies, oil price recovery, and the pace of Canada's economic recovery will determine the long-term direction of the exchange rate [3].