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Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) is experiencing fluctuations against the Canadian dollar (CAD) due to diverging central bank policies and differing commodity price trends, while the Swiss franc (CHF) continues to face downward pressure against the US dollar (USD) amid a zero interest rate environment and significant changes in market positioning [1][2]. Group 1: Currency Pair Dynamics - The AUD/CAD is currently supported by the Reserve Bank of Australia's maintained interest rate of 3.6%, with expectations for a potential rate hike next year, contrasting with the Bank of Canada's lower rate of 2.25% [1]. - The USD/CHF is under pressure from the unwinding of carry trades, as the strategy of borrowing CHF to invest in higher-yielding assets has become unviable due to the CHF's appreciation exceeding borrowing costs [1]. Group 2: Commodity Influence - The AUD has benefited from a structural increase in copper prices, while the CAD is negatively impacted by declining oil prices [1]. - The market structure for the CHF has changed significantly, with speculative short positions decreasing by 60% from their peak earlier in the year, reaching a two-year low [1]. Group 3: Institutional Outlook - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) is optimistic about the long-term strength of AUD/CAD but warns of risks from weak iron ore prices [2]. - Standard Chartered Bank anticipates a potential technical rebound for USD/CHF, targeting a level of 0.8060, while UBS warns that continued unwinding of carry trades could push USD/CHF down to 0.77 [2]. Group 4: Technical Analysis and Trading Strategies - Key technical levels for AUD/CAD include a short-term support at 0.8870 and a strong support at 0.8800, with resistance at 0.8950 [2]. - For USD/CHF, critical support is at 0.7770, with resistance levels at 0.7950 and 0.8060 [2]. - Suggested trading strategies include buying AUD/CAD on dips near the 0.8870 support and shorting USD/CHF near the 0.8060 resistance, while monitoring central bank signals and commodity price trends [2].