杨德龙：2026年十大预言正式发布 A股和港股延续慢牛长牛行情

Core Viewpoint - The market is expected to continue its upward trend into 2026, with the Shanghai Composite Index projected to maintain levels above 4000 points, marking a new phase in a long-term bull market [1][17]. Group 1: Market Trends and Predictions - The 2025 market predictions have largely been validated, including the continuation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and the appreciation of the RMB [1][19]. - The international gold price is anticipated to rise significantly, potentially exceeding $5000 or even $10000 per ounce, driven by the long-term devaluation of the dollar [2][18]. - The stock market is seeing a shift in investment from real estate to capital markets, with over 1 trillion yuan in public fund issuance, predominantly in equity funds [2][18]. Group 2: Economic Policies and Consumer Behavior - The Chinese government is expected to implement effective growth policies, leading to improved economic data and a recovery in consumer spending [7][22]. - There is a notable acceleration in the transfer of household savings to capital markets, with equity fund sales projected to rise significantly [8][23]. - The real estate market is still in a correction phase, but first-tier cities may see a rebound in transaction volumes and stabilization in core area property prices [10][24]. Group 3: Monetary and Fiscal Policies - The central bank is likely to maintain a supportive monetary policy, keeping interest rates low and ensuring ample liquidity in the market [11][25]. - Fiscal policies will be actively employed to stimulate investment and consumption, including support for local governments and infrastructure projects [12][26]. Group 4: Sector Performance and Investment Opportunities - Technology stocks are expected to remain a key investment focus, with other sectors like renewable energy, consumer goods, and military industries also gaining traction [13][27]. - The international situation remains volatile, but the long-term upward trend in gold prices is expected to continue, with significant implications for investment strategies [14][28]. - The RMB is projected to appreciate further, attracting more foreign capital into Chinese assets, which will enhance the valuation of RMB-denominated investments [15][29]. - Both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are anticipated to continue their bull market trajectory, providing increased investment opportunities and enhancing investor sentiment [16][30].