欧洲央行利率稳定欧元走强

Core Viewpoint - The Euro is strengthening against the US Dollar due to the divergence in monetary policies between the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve (Fed), with the ECB maintaining stable interest rates while the Fed continues its easing policy [1][2]. Group 1: ECB's Policy and Economic Outlook - The ECB decided to keep the Eurozone deposit facility rate at 2.00%, the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.40%, marking the sixth consecutive pause in rate cuts since July 2025 [1]. - The Eurozone economy and inflation are stabilizing, with core inflation gradually approaching the 2% medium-term target and a slight economic recovery observed in the first three quarters [1]. - The ECB's latest forecast indicates that inflation rates will stabilize near the target range over the next two years, providing a foundation for policy stability [1]. Group 2: Fed's Easing Policy and Market Sentiment - The Fed lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.5%-3.75%, marking the third consecutive cut since September 2025 and a total reduction of 75 basis points for the year [2]. - There is a divergence in market expectations regarding the Fed's future policy, with some institutions predicting further rate cuts while others believe the current rate is appropriate [2]. - The contrasting monetary policies between the Fed and the ECB are expected to continue benefiting the Euro [2]. Group 3: Market Predictions and Technical Analysis - Market sentiment is leaning towards Euro bullishness, with Goldman Sachs predicting the Euro to rise to 1.25 against the Dollar in the next 12 months, and JPMorgan forecasting a rise to 1.22 by March 2026 [3]. - The bullish outlook is supported by three main factors: the persistent divergence in monetary policies, the relatively high valuation of the Dollar, and stronger-than-expected economic resilience in the Eurozone [3]. - Technically, the Euro has established a bullish trend after stabilizing above the 1.17 level, with key support between 1.1750-1.1780 and resistance at 1.1850 [4].