瑞士通缩压力瑞郎避险强化

Core Viewpoint - The recent weakness of the USD/CHF exchange rate is primarily driven by the divergence in monetary policies between the Federal Reserve and the Swiss National Bank, alongside Switzerland's deflationary pressures and the strengthening of the Swiss franc's safe-haven appeal [1][2]. Group 1: Swiss National Bank Policy - The Swiss National Bank (SNB) maintained its policy rate at 0% during its monetary policy meeting on December 11, which was in line with market expectations [1]. - Despite significant deflationary pressures, with November CPI growth at 0%, the SNB's commitment to not returning to negative interest rates has tempered expectations for aggressive easing [1]. - The Swiss economy shows resilience, with slight growth in manufacturing and services offsetting a contraction in the pharmaceutical sector, supporting the SNB's stable policy stance [1]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.5%-3.75% marks the third consecutive rate cut this year, totaling a 75 basis point reduction [2]. - The Fed's shift in focus from anti-inflation to supporting employment indicates a significant policy change, contributing to the USD's weakness against the CHF [2]. - Internal divisions within the Fed regarding the policy path further diminish the attractiveness of the USD, as some members advocate for more aggressive easing or maintaining current rates [2]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Exchange Rate Outlook - The SNB's intervention challenges are compounded by the Swiss franc's safe-haven status, which has attracted significant capital inflows despite a 0% interest rate environment [3]. - The potential for a technical rebound in the USD/CHF exchange rate exists, with short-term resistance levels identified at 0.8060 and 0.8200, while support is focused around 0.7870 [3]. - Overall, market sentiment leans towards a medium to long-term bearish outlook for the USD/CHF exchange rate, with prevailing bearish momentum limiting short-term rebound potential [3]. Group 4: Future Considerations - Key factors to monitor include Swiss inflation data and SNB policy statements, as further downward adjustments in inflation expectations could reignite discussions on negative interest rates [4]. - The Federal Reserve's rate decisions and economic data, particularly non-farm payroll and GDP figures, will clarify its easing trajectory [4]. - The implementation effects of the US-Swiss trade agreement and shifts in global risk sentiment will also be critical variables influencing exchange rate fluctuations [4].