氮肥行业2025年持续承压

Core Viewpoint - The nitrogen fertilizer industry is facing significant economic pressure, with a notable decline in profits and an increase in losses among enterprises, indicating a challenging market environment for 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Performance - The total profit of large-scale nitrogen fertilizer enterprises from January to October was 4.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 53.7% [1]. - The losses of enterprises reached 5.37 billion yuan, an increase of 34.1% year-on-year [1]. - The production of synthetic ammonia, nitrogen fertilizer, and urea saw significant increases, with synthetic ammonia production at 64.64 million tons (up 6.5%), nitrogen fertilizer at 44.47 million tons (up 8.9%), and urea at 60.36 million tons (up 9.5%) [1]. Group 2: Price Trends - The average ex-factory price of urea from January to October was 1,702 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 18.9% [2]. - Urea prices fell to a low of 1,542 yuan per ton in mid-October but saw a slight recovery to 1,604 yuan per ton by the end of November [2]. - The average arrival price of anthracite coal was 981 yuan per ton (down 11.5%), while the average price of coking coal was 732 yuan per ton (down 23.2%) [2]. Group 3: Policy and Market Outlook - The government is accelerating policies to address "involution" competition, which may include stricter project approvals for coal-based synthetic ammonia and urea [3]. - Enterprises are encouraged to respond to national policy requirements and consider domestic and international supply-demand situations to avoid excessive capacity expansion [3].