长江有色：宏观转暖流动性宽裕大宗商品普涨 24日铅价或上涨

Core Viewpoint - The lead market is experiencing a complex environment with mixed factors affecting prices, including low social inventory providing support, while demand is structurally weak and facing long-term substitution pressure from lithium batteries [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The London lead futures market saw a rise, closing at $1983 per ton, up $13, with a trading volume of 5600 lots [1]. - The domestic night session for Shanghai lead futures also closed higher, with the main contract closing at 17095 yuan per ton, reflecting a 0.77% increase [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply-side issues are prominent, with primary lead smelting facing low processing fees and tight mineral supply, while secondary lead production is declining due to a shortage of scrap batteries and high prices, leading to widespread losses [1][2]. - Demand is structurally weak, particularly in the automotive sector for lead-acid batteries, despite growth in areas like 5G energy storage, which remains limited in scale and is hindered by overseas policy restrictions [1]. Group 3: Price Outlook - The short-term outlook for lead prices is influenced by low inventory levels and the dual pressures of primary lead production recovery and year-end capital tightening, with strong support from smelting costs expected to lead to potential price increases [2].