铂金涨势如虹！十连阳首破2300美元/盎司，供需失衡引爆市场

Core Viewpoint - Platinum prices have surged to a historical high due to supply shortages and resilient demand, with spot prices reaching $2,355.61 per ounce, marking a significant increase of over 23% in the past week and nearly 150% year-to-date [1][3]. Supply Factors - South Africa, the main producer of platinum, is facing structural issues such as power shortages and aging infrastructure, leading to a 13% year-on-year decline in platinum group metal production in Q1 2023. It is projected that production will decrease by 6% in 2025 [3]. - The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) forecasts a third consecutive year of global platinum market shortages in 2025, with a potential shortfall of 30 tons [3]. Demand Factors - The demand for platinum is being bolstered by increased usage in traditional automotive catalysts and the growth of the hydrogen energy sector. Despite the rise of electric vehicles, the number of existing and newly added fuel vehicles remains substantial, leading to increased platinum usage per vehicle due to stricter emission regulations [3]. - The decision by Europe to relax the 2035 ban on fuel vehicles further strengthens the demand outlook for platinum in the automotive sector [3]. - The hydrogen energy industry is opening new growth avenues for platinum, as it is an essential catalyst in fuel cells and water electrolysis, with significant long-term price support expected [3]. Investment Trends - The rising gold prices have led to a "substitution effect," with platinum becoming a more attractive option for consumers and investors, resulting in a notable increase in demand [4]. - The WPIC projects a 7% year-on-year increase in platinum jewelry demand to 67 tons by 2025, the highest level since 2018, and a 6% increase in investment demand to 23 tons [4]. - China is expected to be a key driver of platinum bar and coin demand, with a projected 47% year-on-year increase to 16 tons by 2025, marking a four-year high [4]. Market Dynamics - The recent rise in platinum leasing rates indicates a tight supply in the spot market, pushing industrial users to buy directly rather than borrow, which contributes to upward pressure on spot prices [4]. - Other precious metals, including gold, silver, and palladium, have also shown strong performance, with gold surpassing $4,500 per ounce and silver reaching historical highs [4]. Macro Factors - The current bull market for precious metals is supported by expectations of macroeconomic easing, tight spot supply, and resilient demand, with a weaker dollar and lower U.S. Treasury yields reducing the holding costs for precious metals [6]. - The ongoing competition for key resources globally is leading to a rebalancing of pricing for money and resources, with platinum and palladium being part of this dynamic [6]. Future Outlook - Analysts believe that the strong momentum for platinum is likely to continue due to persistent supply-demand tightness and the expanding industrial demand from the hydrogen sector [6]. - However, the sustainability of platinum and palladium prices will depend on key variables such as leasing rates, macroeconomic conditions, and the speed of supply recovery [7]. - Despite tight supply, there remains a significant amount of above-ground inventory, which could act as a buffer against potential price declines [7].