印度撤销BIS认证——中印聚酯贸易“重启”背后不简单

Group 1 - The Indian government's recent decision to revoke the mandatory BIS certification for 14 key polyester products, including PTA and MEG, has removed significant barriers to trade between China and India, allowing these products to return to a state of free circulation [1] - China has been the primary source of polyester imports for India, and the implementation of BIS certification in 2023 had tightened export channels, leading to a 43.26% year-on-year decline in China's polyester exports to India, amounting to 467,600 tons in 2024 [1] - The polyester supply chain is highly interconnected, with PTA as a core raw material accounting for 60%-70% of production costs, and over 95% of its use concentrated in the polyester sector, indicating that changes in PTA supply and demand will impact the entire industry [1] Group 2 - The immediate effect of the policy reversal was evident, as domestic polyester factories received a surge in inquiries from India, leading to a significant increase in orders, particularly for FDY, which will subsequently boost PTA demand [2] - Following the certification cancellation, it is expected that China will fill India's monthly PTA supply gap of 150,000 to 180,000 tons, potentially reversing the decline in exports and alleviating the oversupply pressure in the domestic PTA industry [2] - The policy change is also expected to benefit related industries, such as nylon products, which have a strong overlap with Indian textile customers, and domestic nylon manufacturers could leverage this opportunity to increase exports to India [2] Group 3 - Companies need to seize this window of opportunity by quickly responding to customer demands and expanding market penetration while being cautious of potential risks, such as reliance on a single market, to ensure that the policy benefits translate into sustainable high-quality industry growth [3]