ABS市场弱势运行难逆转

Core Viewpoint - The ABS market is experiencing a significant price decline due to structural supply-demand imbalances, with expectations for further price drops in the near term [1][5]. Supply Pressure - The ABS industry is entering a concentrated expansion phase in 2025, with new capacities from companies like Yulong Petrochemical and Daqing Petrochemical expected to push annual production close to 7 million tons, a 27% increase from the previous year [2]. - High operating rates around 70% and increased inventory levels due to sluggish sales are contributing to a relaxed supply environment, which is likely to intensify as new capacities come online [2]. - Manufacturers may increase sales efforts to reduce inventory levels by year-end, potentially exerting additional downward pressure on market prices [2]. Cost Support Insufficiency - The three core raw materials for ABS—styrene, acrylonitrile, and butadiene—are facing a "strong supply, weak demand" situation, leading to low prices that weaken cost support for ABS [3]. - Styrene prices hit a five-year low of 6,300 yuan in November, while acrylonitrile and butadiene also experienced price declines due to oversupply [3]. - The collective drop in raw material prices has not established a solid cost floor for ABS, allowing for further price declines, with current production losses expanding to around 300 yuan [3]. Weak Demand Growth - Demand for ABS is showing divergence, particularly in the home appliance sector, where production growth is lagging behind raw material capacity expansion [4]. - Key indicators in the real estate sector have significantly declined, constraining growth in the home appliance market, despite government policies aimed at boosting sales [4]. - While exports of ABS have increased by 71.58% year-on-year, the overall supply-demand mismatch remains unaddressed due to the scale of domestic production [4]. Structural Imbalance - The stark contrast between moderate demand growth and substantial supply expansion is a core structural issue that is expected to hinder strong upward support for the ABS market in the short term [5].