邻二甲苯2025年利润“前高后低”

Core Viewpoint - The paraxylene industry is expected to experience a fundamental recovery and restructuring in profitability in 2025, with profits showing a distinct "high-low" trend throughout the year, moving away from consecutive losses. Average profits are projected to rise from a meager 89 yuan per ton in 2024 to 296 yuan in 2025, driven by upstream cost advantages, export demand, and capacity growth [1] Group 1 - In early 2025, the paraxylene industry struggled at the breakeven point, with profits fluctuating around the loss threshold due to rising raw material prices, particularly isomer xylene, which pressured profit margins [1][2] - A turning point occurred in the second quarter, with profits peaking between late April and early May, reaching a historical high of over 1190 yuan, supported by a combination of supply tightness from domestic maintenance and strong export performance, especially to India [2] Group 2 - However, the high-profit scenario is not sustainable, as profits began to decline after mid-year due to the fading cost advantages and a reversal in supply-demand fundamentals. New capacities from companies like Yulong Petrochemical and Tianjin Petrochemical increased domestic supply, leading to a market shift from tight balance to surplus [3] - The paraxylene industry faced renewed losses by November and December, with losses exceeding 300 yuan at times, as the oversupply effect became evident and downstream demand remained weak, exacerbating the profit erosion [3] Group 3 - The profit recovery in 2025 is characterized as a temporary outcome driven by "cost collapse" and "export benefits," reflecting the industry's return to the harsh reality of self-sustaining supply-demand pricing amid a cycle of capacity expansion [4] - The export market played a crucial buffering role, delaying the oversupply phenomenon, but did not alter the long-term trend of a loosening domestic supply-demand structure. Future profitability will depend on companies' ability to enhance competitiveness through technological upgrades, cost control, and deep global market engagement [4]