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Core Viewpoint - The European phenolic industry is facing unprecedented pressure due to a significant drop in demand for phenol and acetone, coupled with high production costs, leading to potential capacity adjustments in the industry [1][2]. Production Costs - European phenol production costs are approximately 41% higher than Southeast Asia and 45% higher than the Middle East, primarily due to soaring energy costs after the reduction of Russian gas imports in 2022 and high raw material costs [1]. - The production process in Europe relies heavily on naphtha steam cracking, with propylene as a byproduct, which is affected by low operating rates during weak market demand, impacting phenol production costs [1]. - Limited propane dehydrogenation capacity in Europe further exacerbates the local raw material cost disadvantage compared to other regions [1]. - Strict carbon compliance costs in Europe add to the overall cost burden for producers, alongside aging production facilities that increase operational costs [1]. Downstream Consumption - Since March 2024, European spot prices for phenol have dropped by 49%, while acetone prices have decreased by 61.5%, indicating a significant oversupply in both markets [2]. - The demand for downstream products such as Bisphenol A and phenolic resins is weak, leading to a lack of profitability for producers even when reducing phenol operating rates [2]. - From 2019 to the present, European phenol demand has declined by approximately 30%, with significant reductions in consumption expected by 2025 [2]. Supply Stability - Despite adjustments in downstream capacity, nominal phenol production capacity in Europe has remained stable, with only a 3.1% decrease due to the shutdown of a phenol facility in Poland [2]. - Operating rates for local facilities are maintained between 60% and 70%, which does not alleviate the persistent oversupply in the phenol and acetone markets [2]. Market Dynamics - INEOS has announced plans to close its 660,000-ton/year phenol facility in Germany by the end of 2027 while simultaneously planning to restart a 680,000-ton/year phenol facility in Belgium, adding uncertainty to the supply-demand balance in the European phenolic market [3]. - Global phenol capacity continues to expand, particularly in integrated projects for Bisphenol A and its downstream products, with nominal capacity expected to rise from 11.5 million tons to nearly 13.3 million tons between 2024 and 2029 [3]. - The price of Bisphenol A has surpassed that of polycarbonate products, driven by competitive pricing from Asian imports, with a nearly 44% year-on-year increase in polycarbonate imports from China to Europe observed in the first nine months of 2025 [3]. Trade and Regulatory Challenges - The effectiveness of anti-dumping duties on epoxy resins from certain Asian countries has disappointed market participants, with current prices falling below pre-duty levels [4]. - Westlake Chemical, one of the companies that initiated anti-dumping claims, is set to exit the European market by 2025, indicating ongoing challenges in the industry [4]. - As 2026 approaches, the European phenolic industry will continue to navigate the dual challenges of capacity rationalization and trade flow restructuring, testing the industry's resilience [4].