金价一年涨超70%，还能追高吗？

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in COMEX gold prices, reaching $4,538 per ounce and peaking at $4,555.1, is driven by a global reassessment of what constitutes a safe asset, marking 2025 as the strongest year for gold since 1979 [2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current gold price rally is supported by structural forces rather than short-term sentiment, with the U.S. unemployment rate rising to 4.6% and core CPI increasing by only 2.8%, indicating economic cooling and reinforcing expectations for continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 [3][5]. - The U.S. fiscal deficit is eroding the credibility of the dollar, with rising debt risks and concerns over fiscal sustainability leading to a decline in the attractiveness of dollar assets, thus pushing capital towards gold [5][7]. - Central bank gold purchases are becoming a normalized trend, with expectations of annual purchases reaching between 750 to 900 tons in 2025, driven by geopolitical risks and rising debt levels [5][6]. Group 2: Investment Considerations - For ordinary investors, the decision to buy gold should consider their investment goals, tools, and positions. Physical gold is suitable for long-term holding and hedging but is less liquid and has higher transaction costs, while gold ETFs or paper gold offer easier access and lower fees [8][9]. - Experts recommend a cautious approach to purchasing gold at current high prices, suggesting gradual accumulation rather than large one-time investments, especially given the historical volatility following rapid price increases [8][9]. - The recent 70% increase in gold prices reflects a shift in trust, as concerns about fiat currencies and government credit grow, positioning gold as a critical asset in a diversified investment strategy [9].