【铅价】强成本与弱需求的窄幅拉锯 短期涨势能持续多久？

Core Viewpoint - The lead market is experiencing a rebound trend with a current average price of 17,200 CNY/ton, reflecting a 150 CNY increase from the previous day, amidst a backdrop of mixed macroeconomic signals and seasonal demand fluctuations [1] Macroeconomic and Price Trends - Lead prices are showing a high-level retreat and low-level fluctuation, influenced by tightening funds at year-end and reduced expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which dampens market sentiment [1] - Domestic policies are stabilizing but lack strong driving forces, with the demand peak nearing its end, leading to weakened macro support for prices [1] - Short-term price expectations are set within a core range of 17,000-17,300 CNY/ton, with a generally strong trend anticipated [1] Supply Side Status - There is a significant divergence in domestic lead supply, characterized by stable primary lead and tightening recycled lead [1] - The recovery of previously shut-down primary lead producers has led to a slight increase in overall supply, but new capacity release remains slow, and low processing fees for lead concentrate limit production growth [1] - The main issue lies in recycled lead production, which is constrained by a decline in winter waste battery collection, raw material shortages, and environmental policies, resulting in low operating rates for enterprises [1] - Domestic social inventory is at a low level, providing price support, while LME inventory remains high, indicating a loose supply-demand situation overseas, creating an "internal low, external high" dynamic [1] Demand Side Status - Downstream demand is characterized by stability in traditional lead-acid battery needs, but new demand sources are weak, particularly in the electric bicycle market due to new national standards [2] - Emerging sectors like energy storage (e.g., lead-carbon batteries) have long-term potential but currently contribute minimally to overall consumption [2] - Export conditions for lead-acid batteries and lead materials are challenging due to overseas trade barriers, exacerbating demand-side pressures [2] - Overall, downstream procurement is primarily driven by rigid demand, lacking large-scale stocking motivation, reflecting a "peak season not booming" characteristic [2] Core Industry Chain Contradictions - The inventory situation is characterized by "tight domestic, loose external" conditions, with domestic social inventory dropping to a near three-year low, creating strong support for spot circulation [2] - Conversely, LME inventory stands at 253,000 tons, continuously suppressing international prices and market sentiment [2] Short-term Price Trend Forecast - The lead market is currently in a high-level narrow fluctuation pattern, with clear price volatility ranges influenced by mixed macro factors [3] - The domestic supply is constrained by tight recycled lead raw materials, while social inventory is at historical lows, providing strong bottom support [3] - However, weak demand growth, particularly in exports, combined with high overseas LME inventory, suppresses upward price potential [3] - The market is expected to reach a weak balance under the support of "strong costs, low inventory" and the pressure of "weak demand, high external inventory," with future direction dependent on changes in domestic inventory trends and macro sentiment [3]