原料 | 震荡与重构：伦敦金属交易所金属市场年度回顾七图解析

Group 1 - The core theme defining the LME base metals market this year is the market restructuring caused by supply disruptions and trade tariffs [1] - Despite a challenging demand outlook, supply chain pressures have driven the LME index for six base metal futures contracts to its highest level since the historical peak in 2022, the year the Russia-Ukraine conflict began [1] - The market turmoil this year is also attributed to the unpredictable tariff policies of former U.S. President Donald Trump, which have led to structural changes in global metal trade [1] Group 2 - Copper prices on the LME have reached historical highs, approaching $12,000 per ton, driven by expectations of potential tariffs on refined copper imports [3] - The threat of tariffs has caused significant market disturbances, comparable to the actual impact of the tariffs themselves [3] - Tin has emerged as a "star commodity" this year, facing multiple supply threats due to its concentrated global supply from high-risk regions [5] Group 3 - The aluminum market is experiencing a supply ceiling as China's production capacity has reached government-imposed limits, leading to heightened market awareness of new aluminum smelting projects outside China [7][8] - The U.S. aluminum market is facing a supply shortage, with spot prices significantly above LME benchmark prices, indicating a critical supply gap [9] - Zinc has encountered a dramatic market situation with low inventories, leading to record premiums for spot zinc over three-month futures [10] Group 4 - The lead market remains oversupplied, with no immediate changes expected in this situation, as traders prefer storage arbitrage over spot sales [16] - Nickel supply is increasing significantly due to rising production in Indonesia, outpacing demand growth, although there are indications of strategic stockpiling in China [17]