【财经分析】印尼政策扰动镍市！镍价短期飙升创8个月新高 涨势持续性有待政策落地验证

Core Viewpoint - The nickel market is experiencing a strong rebound due to Indonesia's plans to significantly reduce nickel ore supply quotas for 2026 and potential adjustments to pricing rules, leading to a surge in nickel prices to an 8-month high [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reaction - On December 23, LME nickel prices peaked at $15,980 per ton, while on December 24, Shanghai nickel reached 130,880 yuan per ton, marking the highest levels in eight months [1]. - The Shanghai nickel main contract has seen a continuous rise for six trading days, with a maximum cumulative increase of over 17% since hitting a five-year low on December 17 [3]. Group 2: Policy Implications - The Indonesian Nickel Mining Association (APNI) announced a target of approximately 250 million tons for nickel ore production in the 2026 work plan, a significant reduction from the 379 million tons set for 2025, aimed at preventing further price declines [3]. - The potential revision of the nickel reference price calculation formula may classify by-products like cobalt as independent commodities, which could lead to increased costs in the nickel industry [3][6]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Despite the price surge, analysts caution that the nickel market still faces oversupply pressures, with high inventories and weak demand persisting [2][7]. - Current nickel inventories at the London Metal Exchange stand at 253,000 tons, while domestic refined nickel stocks have reached 59,000 tons, indicating a continued oversupply situation [7]. - The demand side is entering a traditional off-peak season, with expectations of reduced production in stainless steel and other sectors, further complicating the supply-demand balance [7][8]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The implementation of Indonesia's supply quota reduction is seen as a critical factor for future nickel price trends, with a potential marginal improvement in the supply-demand balance if the quota is enforced [8]. - Analysts suggest that while market sentiment is currently positive, the underlying oversupply may limit the sustainability of the price rebound, indicating a need to monitor the situation closely [8].