中信证券：对欧盟乳制品反补贴裁定落地，利好乳制品国产替代

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the preliminary ruling on the anti-subsidy investigation of EU dairy products by China is favorable for domestic dairy product substitution [1] Group 1: Anti-Subsidy Investigation - On December 22, 2025, the Ministry of Commerce announced the preliminary ruling on the anti-subsidy investigation of EU imported dairy products, imposing an anti-subsidy tax deposit on six categories of imported dairy products (cheese + cream) from the EU, with a rate ranging from 28.6% to 42.7% [1] - The imposition of the anti-subsidy tax deposit is expected to widen the price gap between domestic and foreign products in the short term, accelerating the domestic substitution process for cheese and cream products [1] Group 2: Market Opportunities - In the context of rising prices for EU imports, domestic cheese is anticipated to seize the opportunity to penetrate the domestic B-end supply chain [1] - Domestic cream is expected to accelerate its substitution, with the logic of increasing low-priced domestic alternatives becoming more straightforward, while also potentially expanding the price range for domestic cream, leading to more reasonable profit margins [1]