Soul三闯港股的底气：1100万“铁粉”月均付费104元撑起124亿对赌？

Core Viewpoint - Soul, a social platform leveraging AI, has submitted its prospectus for a fourth IPO attempt, reporting a net profit of nearly 1 billion yuan over the past three years, indicating a successful turnaround from previous losses [1][32]. Group 1: Company Overview - Soul positions itself as a social platform based on user interests and personalities, utilizing AI-generated avatars for virtual interactions and providing emotional value services, including virtual goods and advertising [2][33]. - As of January-August 2025, Soul's monthly active users reached 28 million, although this is a decline from the peak of 31.6 million in 2021. However, the average monthly spending per paying user increased from 75 yuan in 2022 to 104 yuan, a nearly 40% rise [3][34]. Group 2: IPO Journey - Soul's IPO journey has been fraught with challenges, including a failed attempt to list on NASDAQ in May 2021, where it was valued at approximately $2 billion (about 13 billion yuan) before pausing the application [4][34]. - The company faced legal issues from competitor Uki, which accused Soul of malicious reporting, leading to a court ruling that affected its financial standing [4][35]. - After two failed attempts to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange due to material updates, Soul is now attempting its fourth IPO with a focus on being a leading AI-driven immersive social platform [6][38]. Group 3: Financial Performance - From 2019 to 2022, Soul reported a cumulative adjusted net loss of 1.759 billion yuan, but it has recently shifted to a profitable model, projecting adjusted net profits of 361 million yuan, 337 million yuan, and 286 million yuan for 2023, 2024, and the first eight months of 2025, respectively [7][49]. - The revenue structure is heavily reliant on emotional value services, which accounted for 90.8% of total revenue in the first eight months of 2025, while advertising revenue was only 1.54 billion yuan [10][41]. Group 4: User Engagement and Spending - Soul's strategy has focused on increasing the spending of its paying users, with the average monthly revenue per paying user rising significantly from 21.9 yuan in 2019 to 104.4 yuan in 2025 [21][53]. - Approximately 39% of Soul's monthly active users are paying users, indicating a strong engagement among a core group of users willing to spend on emotional value services [22][53]. Group 5: Risks and Challenges - Soul's business model, while generating high gross margins of over 80%, shows signs of vulnerability due to a plateau in user growth, with monthly active users declining from 31.6 million in 2021 to 28 million in 2025 [11][43]. - The company faces significant financial liabilities, with approximately 12.4 billion yuan in redeemable shares and obligations, which could pose risks if the IPO does not succeed [17][48]. - There are ongoing concerns regarding user complaints related to transparency in automatic renewals and potential data security issues, which could impact the company's reputation and user trust [26][59].