智通财经网·2025-12-24 06:25Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce has announced a countervailing policy against EU imported dairy products, specifically targeting cheese and high-fat cream, which are core categories in deep processing of dairy products. This policy is set to enhance the price advantage of domestic manufacturers and is expected to have a rapid market impact [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections Policy Announcement - The Ministry of Commerce has issued a preliminary ruling on countervailing investigations against EU dairy imports, confirming that these products are subsidized and have caused substantial harm to the domestic industry. Starting December 23, 2025, temporary countervailing measures will be implemented, requiring importers to provide a deposit of 21.9% to 42.7% based on the value of the goods [2]. Characteristics of the Policy - The ruling specifically targets cheese and high-fat cream, which are heavily reliant on imports, with over 50% of high-fat cream being imported. The measures impose a significant cost increase on EU products, with an average subsidy rate close to 30%. The policy takes effect immediately, demonstrating the government's commitment to market stability [3]. Market Impact - The countervailing policy is expected to accelerate domestic substitution in the deep processing sector, potentially freeing up a market space of 20 billion for cream and 14 billion for cheese. Historically, China's dairy processing industry has been heavily reliant on imports due to high raw milk costs and immature technology, with domestic products only accounting for 14%-18% of the market in 2023. The policy is anticipated to enhance the price advantage of domestic manufacturers, particularly benefiting those in high-fat cream production [4]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests three categories of investment opportunities: - Domestic substitution beneficiaries: Recommended stocks include Lihigh Foods (300973.SZ) and Miaokelando (600882.SH), with Lihigh being the largest domestic cream producer and poised to benefit from price increases in imported brands [5]. - Dairy price reversal benefiting upstream farms: Companies like Youran Dairy (09858) and Modern Dairy (01117) are highlighted, as they are expected to show resilience and potential profit recovery with the reversal of raw milk prices [5]. - Strengthening competitiveness of leading dairy companies: Recommendations include Yili (600887.SH) and Mengniu Dairy (02319), which are expected to benefit from stabilized milk prices and accelerated deep processing business, enhancing their long-term growth potential [5].