The dollar is finishing a difficult year with a ‘golden cross’ — suggesting the worst might be over

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. dollar, which has faced significant challenges in 2025, may experience a rebound in early 2026 due to a recent bullish technical signal known as a "golden cross" [2][3]. Group 1: Technical Indicators - The ICE U.S. Dollar Index DXY recently saw its 50-day simple moving average cross above its 200-day moving average, indicating a potential bullish trend for the dollar [2]. - This golden cross marks the 39th occurrence since 1970, suggesting that the dollar could strengthen in the coming months [3]. - Historically, after a golden cross, the dollar tends to be higher between 20 and 60 trading sessions later [3]. Group 2: Dollar Performance and Factors - The dollar index has declined by approximately 9% since the beginning of 2025, trading at 98.30, which is slightly above its lowest levels of the year [2]. - The dollar has weakened against currencies like the euro due to concerns over President Trump's trade policies potentially undermining the U.S.'s global standing [4]. - Expectations of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, while rates in other major economies remain stable or increase, have also contributed to the dollar's struggles [5].