基金经理投资笔记 | 2026年政策交易的逻辑

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding policy factors in asset allocation and suggests that 2026 investment strategies will focus on internal demand expansion and structural adjustments rather than external pressures [1][12]. Policy Analysis Basic Logic - Policy factors are characterized by their artistic nature, making them difficult to quantify and predict [2]. - Effective policy analysis requires understanding the nature of government and using investor-friendly methods to interpret policies [2]. - Government behavior is influenced by strategic and tactical goals, financial constraints, and the adjustment of interests [3][4][5]. 2026 Policy Goals and Action Projection - The government will focus on long-term institutional construction and short-term policy operations, aligning with the 14th Five-Year Plan [8]. - The policy aims to stimulate demand and adjust supply-side factors to address low inventory levels and price stagnation [8][9]. - The shift in policy focus from external negotiations to internal demand expansion is expected to be gradual and systematic [12]. Macro Perspective - Economic growth is anticipated to shift from "weak recovery + strong differentiation" to "overall improvement," with corporate profits recovering [21]. - Inflation is expected to show moderate recovery, with consumer demand gradually improving [21]. - The liquidity environment is projected to tighten, with a stable RMB and a shift in household savings towards indirect market investments [21]. Core Driving Forces - The interaction between policy and economic cycles will be crucial, with fiscal policies aimed at leveraging structures and monetary policies focusing on precision [22]. Asset Allocation Direction - Investment focus will be on midstream manufacturing and new productivity sectors, with high-rated credit bonds and interest rate bonds forming the core of fixed income strategies [23]. - The attractiveness of RMB assets is expected to increase, suggesting a potential increase in allocations related to Chinese asset revaluation [23]. Strategy Implementation - The strategy will prioritize cyclical resonance, defensive positioning, and structural over total considerations, utilizing tools like ETFs to capture opportunities [24].