日本债务“滚雪球”!关键假定利率创30年来新高 偿付成本激增加剧失控风险

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese Ministry of Finance plans to set the key assumed interest rate for calculating government bond interest payments at 3.0% for the next fiscal year, marking the highest level in nearly 30 years, which will significantly increase debt servicing costs [1][4]. Group 1: Interest Rate and Debt Servicing Costs - The assumed interest rate will rise from the initially set 2.6% during the budget application phase to 3.0% for the fiscal year starting in April 2026, up from the current fiscal year's rate of 2% [1][4]. - This increase in the assumed interest rate is expected to push Japan's debt servicing costs to a new record high, with total debt-related expenditures projected to exceed approximately 28.2 trillion yen in the current fiscal year's budget [5]. Group 2: Fiscal Policy and Budget - The Japanese government is set to finalize the budget draft for fiscal year 2026, which will exceed 122 trillion yen, driven by rising social welfare costs and new fiscal support measures to alleviate the impact of rising living costs [3]. - The supplementary budget approved by the Japanese Diet for fiscal year 2025 amounts to 18.3 trillion yen, the largest since the pandemic, with 11.7 trillion yen to be financed through new government bonds [3]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Economic Implications - Concerns are growing regarding Japan's fiscal situation and the expansionary fiscal policy stance of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, as the yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds has risen significantly, reaching levels not seen since 1999 [4]. - The increase in debt servicing costs is expected to account for about one-quarter of total expenditures, making it the second-largest expenditure item after social security [5].