新增利好因素兑现前 尿素仍坚挺震荡趋势为主

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a strong performance in the domestic futures market for urea, with the main contract rising by 1.52% to 1739.00 yuan/ton as of the report date [1] Group 2 - The urea market is influenced by rumors regarding new export quotas, which could lead to a rapid decline in prices if proven false [2] - Production from gas-based enterprises is decreasing slightly due to ongoing maintenance, impacting daily output [2] - Demand remains resilient as winter storage continues, with factories primarily producing high-nitrogen compound fertilizers, providing some support for urea despite a lack of upward driving force [2] Group 3 - Inventory levels are decreasing but remain high compared to the same period over the past five years, with factory inventory at 117.97 thousand tons (down 5.45 thousand tons), port inventory at 13.8 thousand tons (up 1.5 thousand tons), and inventory in Guangxi and Guangdong at 14.6 thousand tons (unchanged) [2] Group 4 - The market focus is on the upcoming printing standards and changes in China's export policies, with rumors of new export quotas significantly affecting market sentiment [2] - Until new favorable factors are confirmed, the market is expected to maintain a strong and fluctuating trend, with attention on the results of printing standards and export expectations that may create short-term trading opportunities [2] - It is also important to monitor changes in urea supply levels, the atmosphere of spot transactions, overall commodity trends, and this week's urea inventory data [2]