短期乙二醇支撑或继续测试 反弹空间目前仍有限

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for energy and chemicals shows significant gains, particularly in ethylene glycol futures, which have surged by 3.51% to reach 3804.00 CNY/ton [1] Cost Analysis - According to Nanhua Futures, the cost side may face additional bearish pressure as oil and coal continue to show a weak trend. If profits recover alongside a decline in costs, the expected maintenance may not meet projections [2] Supply Analysis - According to Ruida Futures, China's weekly ethylene glycol production is at 386,800 tons, a decrease of 1,300 tons from the previous week, representing a week-on-week decline of 3.33%. The domestic ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate is at 61.71%, down 0.22% from the previous week [2] Demand Analysis - Southwest Futures indicates that downstream polyester operating rates remain at 91.2%, but terminal weaving machine operations have decreased, slightly weakening demand support. In November, the total export volume of polyester products reached 1,219,400 tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 7.5% and a year-on-year increase of 9.78% [2] Market Outlook - Donghai Futures suggests that downstream production cuts may be implemented in the near future, leading to a continued short-term surplus in ethylene glycol. However, recent coal price rebounds may increase ethylene glycol costs, and a slight decline in gas-based production may reduce surplus pressure. Short-term support for ethylene glycol may continue to be tested, but the rebound potential remains limited [2]