外棉集中到港窗口期 预计12月我国棉花进口量或增至15万吨

Core Viewpoint - In November 2025, China's cotton imports experienced the first year-on-year growth of the year, with expectations for continued strong purchasing activity in December, potentially reaching 150,000 tons [1][5]. Group 1: Import Data - In November 2025, China's cotton import volume was 118,700 tons, representing a month-on-month increase of 33.37% and a year-on-year increase of 9.78% [1]. - From January to November 2025, the cumulative cotton import volume was 887,800 tons, showing a year-on-year decrease of 64.10% [1]. - The significant increase in imports is attributed to improved trade conditions and heightened confidence among cotton enterprises [1]. Group 2: Source of Imports - November marked a peak period for the arrival of new season Brazilian cotton, with imports reaching 67,800 tons, a month-on-month increase of 218.33%, accounting for 57.07% of total imports [3]. - The second and third largest sources of cotton imports were Australia and Kazakhstan, with import shares of 32.38% and 5.20%, respectively [3]. - U.S. cotton imports accounted for only 1.12% of the total, ranking fourth [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The increase in foreign cotton arrivals coincided with the domestic new season cotton entering the market, leading to a rise in available supply [3]. - However, limited downstream demand and restricted cotton import quotas for textile enterprises resulted in lower actual outflow from ports, causing net inventories to rise [3]. - As of December 23, 2025, foreign cotton inventory at major domestic ports was 347,000 tons, an increase of 189,000 tons since early November [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - In December, the price gap between domestic and foreign cotton is expected to widen, enhancing the cost-effectiveness of foreign cotton [5]. - The upcoming arrival of U.S. cotton is anticipated to further boost import enthusiasm among cotton traders, with December import volumes projected to be around 150,000 tons [5].