智通财经网·2025-12-24 07:02Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to experience a "Davis Double Play" in 2026, driven by valuation recovery, profit growth, and a return to main themes, with a focus on the "Four AI Main Lines" framework to identify structural opportunities in the tech sector during the AI era [1][2]. Investment Focus - The Hang Seng Index is anticipated to regain upward momentum, with the Hang Seng Tech Index expected to outperform the broader market. The tech sector, representing core assets of China's new economy, is projected to be the strongest driver of market rebound [2]. Main Line 1: Internet Giants - AI is shifting competition among internet giants from traffic to ecosystem capabilities. Cloud business is accelerating due to AI demand, with capital expenditure doubling and stable profit margins. Advertising is seeing immediate monetization benefits from AI, with click-through rates increasing by 15%-20%. Key investment targets include Tencent, Alibaba-W, and Kuaishou, which are well-positioned to leverage technology and data [3]. Main Line 2: AI Computing Power Industry Chain - Leading companies are consistently exceeding expectations, with strong capital expenditure from cloud vendors and tight chip supply countering "bubble" concerns. High infrastructure investment and high ROI are justified, indicating a robust AI industry cycle. Key opportunities include communication networking benefiting from global tech upgrades, semiconductor manufacturing for domestic substitution, and critical equipment and materials for computing power upgrades [4]. Main Line 3: AI Applications - Investment in AI applications has entered a phase where performance is paramount. Clear signals of commercialization acceleration are observed in key sectors such as SaaS, content ecosystems, and advertising. The evolution of enterprise tools into "intelligent agents" is driving ARPU growth, while AIGC is lowering creation costs, leading to synchronized user and revenue growth [5]. Main Line 4: AI End-User and Robotics - The year 2026 is projected to be pivotal for AI-defined hardware and large-scale production of robots. Hardware manufacturers like Apple and Xiaomi are enhancing AI capabilities, while tech giants like OpenAI and Google are entering hardware markets. The investment landscape includes a comprehensive mapping of the robotics industry chain, highlighting opportunities from upstream expansion and capital empowerment, with humanoid robots like Tesla's Optimus expected to reach significant production levels [6].