智通财经网·2025-12-24 07:09Core Viewpoint - Guoyuan International expects Nuo Cheng Jianhua (09969) to achieve revenues of RMB 2.01 billion, 2.06 billion, and 2.56 billion for the years 2025-2027, with net profits of RMB 117 million, 17 million, and 188 million respectively. The company holds approximately RMB 7.2 billion in cash and equivalents, sufficient for innovative research. The company is driven by scientific innovation and has strong product capabilities. A DCF model gives a target price of HKD 16.81, indicating a potential upside of 28% from the current price [1]. Group 1 - Acalabrutinib shows excellent performance in SLE IIb trials, with a SRI-4 response rate of 57.1% in the 75mg group, significantly higher than the placebo group at 34.4%. In subgroups with baseline BILAG≥1A or ≥2B, the response rate improved by 35%, and in those with BILAG≥1A or ≥2B and SLEDAI-2K score ≥4, it improved by 43%. The CDE has approved the initiation of Phase III clinical trials for Acalabrutinib in SLE, with the first patient expected to be enrolled in Q1 2026 [2]. Group 2 - The company has accelerated its product pipeline, with the new TYK2 inhibitor ICP-488 approved for Phase II clinical trials for cutaneous lupus erythematosus (CLE). ICP-488 specifically binds to the TYK2 JH2 domain, blocking the signaling of inflammatory cytokines such as IL-23, IL-12, and type I interferons. The NMPA has approved the company's Entrectinib (ICP-723) for treating adult and adolescent patients with NTRK fusion gene-positive solid tumors, showing high objective response rates (89.1%) and disease control rates (96.4%), with a 24-month PFS of 77.4% and OS of 90.8%, outperforming first-generation TRK inhibitors. Acalabrutinib's Phase III registration trial for immune thrombocytopenia (ITP) in China has completed patient enrollment, with plans to submit a new drug application in H1 2026 [3]. Group 3 - The company has made significant progress in business development, reaching an agreement with ZenasBio Pharma in October 2025. Zenas has been granted rights for Acalabrutinib for non-oncology indications outside Greater China and Southeast Asia, as well as global rights for multiple sclerosis; IL-17i rights are granted for regions outside Greater China and Southeast Asia, and global rights for CNS TYK2i. Zenas will pay a cash upfront of USD 100 million, with the total potential value of the deal exceeding USD 2 billion, which will significantly accelerate the overseas clinical development of products [4].