英大证券郑后成:2026年人民币汇率大概率稳步升值

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of exchange rate trends in global investment decisions, suggesting that a favorable exchange rate can lead to multiple benefits for investors, including rising asset prices and increased returns on investments [1] Group 1: Exchange Rate Trends - The current phase of the RMB exchange rate is in the early stage of an appreciation cycle, which is expected to last for 3-4 years [2] - Historical data shows that the RMB exchange rate has strong cyclical characteristics, with significant fluctuations observed since the 2015 "811 exchange rate reform" [2] - The RMB has been consolidating at the bottom of its cycle for approximately 2.5 years, with a likely upward trend starting from May 2025 [2] Group 2: Economic Conditions - In 2026, the macroeconomic fundamentals of China and the U.S. are expected to shift in favor of China, with U.S. economic growth likely to weaken due to rising unemployment and declining consumer demand [3][4] - China's GDP growth target for 2026 is anticipated to be around 5.0%, with signs of economic stabilization expected in the latter half of the year [4] Group 3: Interest Rate Differentials - The interest rate differential between China and the U.S. is expected to narrow, which historically has been a leading indicator for changes in the RMB exchange rate [5][6] - The U.S. is likely to continue lowering interest rates, while China's bond yields may rise, further supporting the RMB [6] Group 4: Dollar Index Trends - The U.S. dollar index is projected to face downward pressure in 2026, which is expected to positively impact the RMB exchange rate [7] - Factors contributing to the dollar's decline include a weakening U.S. economy and favorable conditions for the euro and yen, which are significant components of the dollar index [7] Group 5: Future Projections - The RMB is expected to appreciate steadily in 2026, potentially reaching a range of 6.20-6.30, driven by strong demand for RMB assets [8] - Historical trends indicate that during periods of RMB appreciation, China's export growth tends to remain robust, suggesting a positive outlook for the economy [8]