光伏"去银化"技术连续突破,用银供需格局将逆转?

Group 1: Silver Price Trends - Silver prices reached a historical high, surpassing $69 per ounce, with a cumulative increase of approximately 138% since 2025 [1] - As of the latest closing, the main Shanghai silver futures contract rose by 6.06%, exceeding 16,200 yuan per kilogram [1] - The continuous rise in silver prices is attributed to both the increase in gold prices and heightened industrial demand, particularly from the photovoltaic (PV) industry [1][2] Group 2: Industrial Demand and Supply Dynamics - Industrial demand for silver is projected to grow significantly, with silver usage in the PV sector expected to reach 6,146 tons by 2024, accounting for 17% of total silver demand [2] - The total industrial demand for silver is forecasted to increase from 15,300 tons in 2016 to 20,400 tons in 2024 [2] - The supply of silver has been relatively stagnant, leading to a supply deficit of 7,762 tons in 2022, 6,240 tons in 2023, and an estimated 4,632 tons in 2024 [2] Group 3: Technological Developments in Photovoltaics - The PV industry is under pressure from rising silver costs, prompting manufacturers to develop low-silver and silver-free technologies [3] - Silver-coated copper technology is being promoted by leading PV silver paste manufacturers, with mass production expected to scale up significantly by late 2025 [4][7] - Companies are implementing copper plating techniques, which have shown to reduce costs and improve durability compared to traditional silver paste methods [6][8] Group 4: Future Outlook and Market Implications - If the adoption of silver-coated copper and silver-free technologies continues to progress, it could lead to a substantial decrease in silver consumption in the PV sector [8] - Current silver consumption in mainstream TOPCon batteries has already decreased from 106 mg per cell to 86 mg per cell, with expectations for further reductions [8] - Despite the ongoing supply-demand imbalance, signs of a potential reversal in the market may emerge, with projections indicating a 10% decline in global new PV installations by 2026 [9]