1224热点追踪：超跌反弹并非坦途：氧化铝仍面临过剩压力

Core Viewpoint - The commodity market showed mixed results, with non-ferrous metals generally rebounding, particularly aluminum oxide, which experienced a significant price increase of over 2% during the day. This rebound is attributed to the strong growth in the US GDP for Q3, which rose by 4.3%, the fastest rate in two years, boosting demand expectations. However, this strong data did not alter future interest rate cut expectations, as liquidity easing is anticipated to strengthen next year [6][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The rebound in aluminum oxide is seen as a potential correction from previous underperformance, with macroeconomic sentiment improving, making aluminum oxide more attractive in terms of valuation [6][2]. - Guinea's import supply of bauxite is expected to increase, with additional shipments and the resumption of large-scale mining operations providing support for both near-term and long-term ore arrivals [6][2]. - The profit margins in Xinjiang's delivery warehouses have diminished, leading to a flow of warehouse receipts out of the region, while the increase in imported aluminum oxide continues to exert pressure on the spot market [6][2]. Group 2: Price Pressure Factors - The narrowing of the premium for spot aluminum oxide is contributing to downward pressure on market trends, indicating that despite the recent rebound, challenges remain [6][2]. - As macroeconomic sentiment stabilizes, the aluminum oxide rebound faces significant resistance, necessitating a cautious approach that considers port inventories and spot pricing [6][2].