能耗双标杆新规下乙二醇的转型与供需格局重塑

Group 1 - The National Development and Reform Commission, along with other ministries, has issued a notice to promote the coal industry from low-end to high-end and to upgrade coal products from primary fuels to high-value products, with the release of the "Key Areas for Clean and Efficient Utilization of Coal Benchmark Levels and Baseline Levels (2025 Edition)" [1] - The 2025 edition includes indicators for coal consumption in coal-fired power generation and coal-to-natural gas, updating technical indicators based on national standards and policies from the past three years [1] - By the end of 2025, China's total ethylene glycol production capacity is projected to reach 29.865 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.93%, with coal-to-ethylene glycol capacity accounting for 993,000 tons per year, representing 33% of the total [1] Group 2 - There are approximately 26 coal-to-ethylene glycol enterprises in China, including major players like Henan Coal Industry, Yangquan Coal Group, and Yulin Chemical, with core production areas in Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Shanxi, and Xinjiang [2] - These regions benefit from low-cost raw coal and resource advantages, accounting for over 60% of the national production capacity, while provinces like Shandong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang, despite lacking coal resources, have some coal-to-ethylene glycol facilities to meet local demand [2] - The main consumption markets for coal-to-ethylene glycol are concentrated in East China and South China, with specific companies supplying various regional markets [2] Group 3 - The coal-to-ethylene glycol industry in China shows significant differentiation in energy consumption control and efficiency standards, with leading companies achieving breakthroughs in energy consumption through process optimization and catalyst upgrades [3] - These top companies utilize direct synthesis gas methods or improved oxalic ester methods, achieving a coal conversion rate of over 80% and a by-product recovery rate of 95% [3] - Currently, most coal-to-ethylene glycol enterprises have energy consumption levels concentrated in the range of 2.9 to 3.2 tons [3] Group 4 - Approximately 75% of enterprises in the coal-to-ethylene glycol industry can stably meet advanced energy efficiency limits and strict environmental control requirements [4] - However, a significant proportion of enterprises, about 25%, do not meet the standards, primarily due to the use of outdated fixed-bed gasification technology and smaller overall plant sizes [4] - There are currently nine long-term shutdown plants, with some production capacities already being eliminated [4]