智绘天图 预报未来——中国气象局智能预报技术重点创新团队建设纪实

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant advancements made by the China Meteorological Administration's Intelligent Forecasting Technology Key Innovation Team in improving weather forecasting capabilities through innovative technologies and methodologies [1][2]. Group 1: Team Formation and Objectives - The Intelligent Forecasting Technology Key Innovation Team was established in October 2022 to address the gap in kilometer-level forecasting and to meet the public's demand for timely and accurate weather warnings [2]. - The team aims to develop high-resolution intelligent grid forecasting for key meteorological elements such as precipitation, temperature, and wind, with a target of achieving minute-level update frequency [3]. Group 2: Technological Breakthroughs - The team has developed a strong precipitation nowcasting model using a spectrum-generating adversarial network, which has improved forecasting accuracy by over 10% compared to traditional methods [3]. - A new method for downscaling global numerical model outputs to 1-kilometer grid forecasts has been created, enhancing wind speed and temperature forecasting performance by 34% and 30%, respectively [4]. Group 3: AI Integration and System Development - The team recognized the potential of artificial intelligence in transforming meteorological forecasting and collaborated with Tsinghua University to create the "Fengqing" AI global short-term forecasting system [4][5]. - "Fengqing" became operational in June 2024, capable of generating 69 global meteorological forecast products with a performance ranking among the top internationally [5]. Group 4: Practical Applications and Impact - During the flood season, "Fengqing" successfully predicted the path of Typhoon "Gemi" five days in advance, providing critical information for disaster prevention [7]. - The system has also been instrumental in high-impact weather forecasting, contributing to significant meteorological events and earning recognition as one of the top ten meteorological technological advancements in China [7]. Group 5: Systematic Innovation and Talent Development - The team has developed the "NIMM" intelligent digital forecasting system, which integrates over 30 forecasting plugins and automates the entire process from data preprocessing to product output [8]. - The team has fostered a high-level, agile research team, with several members recognized as young meteorological talents and contributing to numerous patents and publications [11].