Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant rebound in nickel prices due to Indonesia's plans to drastically cut nickel ore supply quotas and potential adjustments to mineral pricing rules, with LME nickel reaching a peak of $15,980 per ton and Shanghai nickel hitting 130,880 yuan per ton, both marking an 8-month high [1][2] - Indonesia's nickel mining policy has reignited bullish sentiment in the nickel market, with the Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) announcing a target of approximately 250 million tons for nickel ore production in 2026, a substantial decrease from the 379 million tons set for 2025, aimed at preventing further price declines [1][2] - The tightening of nickel ore quotas is expected to have a significant impact on the nickel market balance for 2026, potentially reducing surplus expectations and supporting price recovery, especially if cobalt is treated as an independent commodity subject to royalties [2][3] Group 2 - Despite the short-term surge in nickel prices, the fundamental oversupply situation remains unchanged, with high inventories and weak demand persisting, as evidenced by LME nickel stocks reaching 253,000 tons and domestic refined nickel inventories at 59,000 tons [3][4] - The current market dynamics show a discrepancy between the strong price performance and the underlying oversupply, making the implementation of Indonesia's policies a critical factor for future price movements [4] - Analysts suggest that while the sentiment is positive and prices may continue to rise due to cost expectations, the fundamental oversupply remains a clear risk, and market participants should be cautious of potential shifts in sentiment [4]
印尼政策扰动镍市！镍价短期飙升创8个月新高 涨势持续性有待政策落地验证
Zhong Guo Neng Yuan Wang·2025-12-24 09:47