国际利好难抵内需疲软 国内汽柴油价格推涨动力不足

Group 1 - Recent international crude oil prices are on the rise, driven by geopolitical signals, particularly the ongoing tensions in Venezuela, leading to concerns over supply stability and resulting in five consecutive price increases, with Brent crude futures approaching $62 per barrel and WTI crude stabilizing around $58 per barrel [1] - The domestic refined oil market has not been able to reverse the trend of price adjustments due to the previous low international oil prices, resulting in a decrease in retail prices. As of December 24, the average price of reference crude oil was $60.21 per barrel, with a change rate of 2.05%, indicating a potential increase of 90 yuan per ton for domestic gasoline and diesel prices [1] - The next price adjustment window is set for January 6, with the new change rate extending into a positive range, supported by OPEC+'s decision to halt production increases starting January 2026, along with seasonal demand during the Christmas period in Europe and the U.S. [1] Group 2 - The domestic gasoline and diesel market is currently experiencing a balance of "international favorable support and domestic demand pressure," with prices remaining stable but slightly increasing, although the market remains subdued due to weak demand [2] - The northern regions are seeing a seasonal decline in diesel consumption as outdoor construction and mining projects halt, while southern regions have limited support from urgent demand due to ongoing projects. Gasoline demand is also weak, with only marginal improvements expected from the upcoming New Year holiday [2] - The overall market sentiment is cautious, with traders and end-users adopting a "just-in-time" purchasing strategy, leading to low willingness for large orders and resulting in limited market transactions [2] Group 3 - Looking ahead, the domestic gasoline and diesel market is expected to remain in a supply-demand balancing act, with international concerns about economic prospects and geopolitical issues in Venezuela providing support for oil prices [3] - As the New Year and Spring Festival approach, there may be a gradual increase in demand for transportation and logistics, potentially leading to slight releases in end-user replenishment needs, although refinery operating rates are expected to remain stable [3] - Short-term domestic gasoline and diesel prices are likely to remain stable with slight increases, and market activity may improve marginally with the release of holiday demand, although the overall recovery may be limited [3]