ATFX汇评:圣诞周本应成交清淡 为何金银疯涨不止

Group 1 - The article highlights the impact of the Christmas holiday on trading volumes in the capital markets, with major exchanges like NYSE, CME, and ICE pausing trading, leading to lower liquidity this week [1][8] - Gold and silver have experienced significant price increases during this relatively quiet Christmas week, with gold rising from $4,339 to a peak of $4,525, marking a cumulative increase of 4.3%, and silver rising from $67.26 to a peak of $72.68, with a cumulative increase of 8.1% [4][10] - The driving factors behind the surge in gold and silver prices include expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, geopolitical tensions, and market speculation regarding potential U.S. actions in the Caribbean region [4][10] Group 2 - The U.S. bond market has shown stability over the past four months, with yields fluctuating between 3.95% and 4.19%, while the federal funds rate is set between 3.5% and 3.75%, indicating a narrow gap of 44 basis points [7][13] - Despite a declining U.S. dollar index, the Federal Reserve's inclination to cut rates appears limited, especially following a strong GDP growth rate of 4.3% in Q3, which has reduced the probability of rate cuts to 13.3% according to CME models [7][13] - While gold and silver are currently experiencing a bullish trend, the article warns that the mid-term outlook may present fewer favorable factors, suggesting a potential risk of price corrections [7][13]