金丰来:2026年金银牛市未竟 技术资产或成助燃剂

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing bull market for gold is expected to continue despite potential short-term corrections in Bitcoin, AI, and the overall tech sector by 2026. The current weakness in crypto assets may actually drive upward momentum for silver [1][4]. Group 1: Gold and Bitcoin Analysis - The BOLD index created by ByteTree provides a framework for rebalancing gold and Bitcoin, two uncorrelated assets, to capture their complementary nature in volatile market conditions [1][4]. - Predictions suggest that gold prices could reach $7,000 per ounce by 2030, a forecast that is gaining credibility given the recent $2,500 increase in gold prices over the past five years [1][4]. - The expansion of the money supply and persistent fiscal deficits are expected to lead to inevitable inflation when these funds flow into the real economy [1][4]. Group 2: Silver Potential - If gold reaches its target price and the gold-silver ratio falls to around 40, silver prices could theoretically reach $175 [5]. - Gold serves as a reserve asset linked to macroeconomic indicators, while Bitcoin acts as a digital reserve tied to technology stocks and internet development, highlighting their distinct roles in asset allocation strategies [5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - Bitcoin is currently in an oversold condition, while gold and silver show strong signs of being overbought, although historical data indicates that these conditions may extend further [5]. - The AI and internet sectors are showing signs of overvaluation after a prolonged period of enthusiasm, with concerns about capital expenditures and returns on investment [5]. - The current market is experiencing a stock momentum bubble not seen in at least 25 years, and as the internet sector adjusts, capital flows will redefine asset performance [5]. Group 4: Institutional Investment and Sentiment - Mainstream institutions have a very low allocation to Bitcoin, particularly in North America and Europe, indicating significant growth potential for the asset [6]. - Silver, once dismissed as "dirt," is making a comeback as the gold-silver ratio declines, suggesting a shift in investor sentiment [6]. - The absence of large inflows into mining ETFs and prevailing public skepticism about gold as a "barbarous relic" signal that the gold bull market is not yet over [6].