NCE外汇:年终税务效应诱发加密震荡

Group 1 - The cryptocurrency market is undergoing a correction driven by liquidity and financial liquidation, with Bitcoin hovering below $88,000 and significant declines in related stocks [1][2] - The atypical sell-off is attributed to "tax loss harvesting," where investors liquidate underperforming positions to offset capital gains for tax purposes [1][2] - The seasonal rebalancing behavior is amplified in a low liquidity environment, causing even small outflows to lead to significant price volatility [1][2] Group 2 - The perpetual contract positions for BTC and ETH have recently shrunk by approximately $5 billion, indicating an acceleration in the market's deleveraging process [3] - As leveraged funds exit the market, the ability to defend against price fluctuations is weakening [3] - The total market capitalization of approximately $2.6 trillion would require a lengthy recovery period and substantial fundamental support to return to its peak of $4 trillion [3] Group 3 - Despite strong economic growth resilience, investor concerns about inflation rebound and interest rate paths are limiting risk appetite [4] - The options market still retains bullish bets on the $100,000 level, but the market is more inclined to technical consolidation around the mean before new liquidity returns in January [4] - Investors are advised to monitor the dynamic rotation between safe-haven assets and risk assets during the year-end period to prepare for potential mean reversion [4]