GTC泽汇资本:2026硬资产崛起 比特币有望逆袭

Core Viewpoint - The financial market in 2025 has shown significant divergence in the performance of mainstream assets, with Bitcoin underperforming traditional safe-haven assets like gold and the Nasdaq 100 index, despite initial high expectations [1][3]. Macro Financial Environment - The monetary credit system is facing long-term challenges, with major economies heavily reliant on "money printing" to manage public debt and fiscal spending, leading to a continuous dilution of fiat currency purchasing power [4]. - There is a growing global demand for "hard assets," moving from single asset types to a diversified approach, with gold demonstrating a remarkable price increase of over 70% in the past year, currently priced above $4,492 per ounce [4]. Gold and Bitcoin Outlook - Market expectations suggest that gold prices may approach $5,000 in 2026, creating a strong safe-haven sentiment that could positively impact digital assets with similar scarcity attributes [4]. - Despite current liquidity tightening and declining risk appetite affecting the crypto market, Bitcoin's core growth logic remains intact, with historical sensitivity to liquidity expansion indicating potential for significant performance in 2026 [2][4]. Energy and Raw Materials Sector - The recovery in the energy and raw materials sectors is providing support for the overall hard asset market, driven by a productivity revolution from AI, infrastructure rebuilding, and robotics, leading to a "quiet bull market" in natural resources [5]. - The rise of these physical assets is not only providing foundational economic support but is also contributing to a new asset safe haven alongside digital assets [5]. Future Investment Landscape - Investors are at a critical juncture for asset rotation, with the rise of hard assets seen as an irreversible trend driven by accelerated fiscal depreciation and technological change [5]. - Understanding the interconnectivity across asset classes is crucial for investors, as the company continues to monitor subtle changes in market liquidity to help clients balance between the steady growth of gold and the explosive potential of Bitcoin [5].